Is it possible for an opposition candidate to win the presidency when the combined opposition gets only 15% of the seats in parliament? How do we predict this? The only laboratory of human experience is history.
Are there countries in post colonial Africa where an opposition candidate won the presidency while the combined opposition lost parliament by a very big margin?
So I got all the nations in Africa where an opposition presidential candidate defeated an incumbent president or ruling party. They include Zambia in 1991, 2006 and 2011; Malawi in 1994, 2009 and 2014; Benin 1990, 1995 and 2015; Ghana in 1998, 2008 and 2015; Nigeria 2014, Kenya 2002; Madagascar in 1990, 2009 and Senegal in 2000 and 2012.
In all of them the victorious opposition took the presidency singularly or in coalition with others but also carried parliament. I could not find a scenario where the opposition is weak in parliamentary elections but strong victorious in presidential elections.
The lesson here is simple but fundamental. You need to be strong in parliamentary elections to have a chance at capturing the presidency. Besigye would be the first candidate in contemporary Africa to win a presidential election when the combined opposition seats in parliament are not just a minority but a very thin minority of less than 20%.
The radical extremist wing of the fdc led by its cult leader and opposition presidential candidate for life, Kizza Besigye, have actively stifled this urgently needed debate inside the party. They have done this by putting a high price on any criticism of the cult leader. Those who attempt are insulted, falsely accused, character assassinated, declared bribed or cowards.
By suppressing free and open debate in the party they have not only undermined its democratic quality but actually killed any chance of the opposition charting a new path. This is the stuff that makes despots and Besigye is riding this wave of despotism.